Craps Systems: What They Don’t Want You To Know
One of the features of the game of Craps that makes it so exciting are the vast number of different bets that can be placed at any one time. You can bet with the dice, against the dice, place side bets, one-roll bets. Hell, most casinos will allow you to call your shot (i.e. place a bet on a single roll that is not marked on the board) because the percentage is always working for them. It is also because of this feature of the game that Craps has had more BETTTING SYSTEMS developed by con artists than any other casino game.
Look in the classifieds, gambling related magazines, and most recently the Internet. They are all over the place. Someone hawking a system that is ‘guaranteed to win’ every time. Some scams try to sell their ‘secrets’ cheap figuring that you wont mind dropping a few bucks just to see if there is anything to it. Others will try to peddle their systems for BIG BUCKS with the hopes that you will think that there really must be something to it if they are charging so much. They will make claims about how much money you can make with their system to try to justify the cost. They will have testimonials from satisfied customers to attempt to give them credibility.
Here is one thing I can guarantee…SHOW ME ANY SYSTEM AND I WILL SHOW YOU HOW IT FAILS. Yep, that is a challenge for any of you con artists out there, and yes…I WILL BACK THAT UP WITH $$$.
Why am I so confident about this? Because the mathematics of the game don’t lie. Now let me show you some of the most common ways that systems are devised to make it look like they will work, and how they actually fail.
This is the most common type of system that is not only promoted for the game of Craps, but for other games as well. It doesn’t matter how elaborate the system is or where they have you placing the bets. The key point with systems that fall into this category is that at some point they will have you raising or lowering your bets based on the previous outcome. These systems are all just variations of the basic DOUBLE-UP system. The double-up system is very simple…you start with the table minimum bet. If you lose your bet, then on the next one you bet twice as much so that when you win that bet you will recoup the loss from the previous bet. If you lose that one you just double-up again. Whenever you win you always drop back down to the minimum bet and start over. IT’S GUARANTEED TO WIN EVERY TIME…if there was not a MAXIMUM bet defined for the table. It’s for this reason that every table game not only has a minimum bet, they also have a maximum bet. The difference between the table minimum and maximum defines how many times a player can double-up and just how quickly these systems will fail. Most casinos set the table minimum/maximum range so that a player can double-up no more than 10 times. A typical casino Craps table will have a $5 minimum and a $2000 maximum. Lets says your just going to play the pass line. Lets see how many times you can double-up:
And just how much did it cost you before you hit the wall?5+10+20+40+80+160+320+640+1280=$2555…That’s quite an expensive lesson to learn.
Most systems will tone down the double-up so that you’re not betting double, maybe 1.5x or less, but then they don’t have you dropping back down to the minimum after a win either. They will ALL eventually hit the wall on the table maximum given the right set of circumstances.
These systems crack me up. How anyone could fall for these scams is beyond me. What they have you doing basically is placing multiple bets at the same time that contradict each other so that if one loses the other one wins. WHAT IS THE SENSE? I’ve heard of one that has you playing both the pass line and the don’t pass line at the same time so that if you shoot a natural on the come out, it’s a wash. The goal is to have a point established so that you can take or lay the free odds and not have to worry about the come out roll. In the small print they’ll say “oh, by the way…if a 12 is rolled on the come out you will lose your pass line bet but it’s a push on the don’t pass line”. That’s a pretty big caveat and one that will kill you in the long run. But then they’ll say that “you can place a bet on the 12 on the come out to cover those instances”. Well, now you’re guaranteed to lose on every roll that’s not a 12 on the come out. GEEZ!
There is not a combination of bets on the table that when placed at the same time give the player a net advantage. EVERY bet on the table carries a house advantage except for FREE ODDS, and those a neutral. Don’t get fooled into thinking that you can hedge one bet with another and come up a winner consistently.
These systems are probably the most effective at fooling unsuspecting marks because they are using mathematics and probabilities as the foundations of their system…BUT THEY ARE USING THEM INCORRECTLY. A patience-based system will have you WAITING for a certain event or series of events to occur before placing your bets, or some even use terms like ‘qualifying the table’. Using the pass line example again, one type of patience system would have you wait until the dice crap out THREE TIMES IN A ROW before placing a bet on the pass line. Why? Because according to their system, the odd of the dice not passing four times in a row are 8 to 1, so by waiting you have bypassed three losing hands and are ready to jump in with a statistical advantage! Well, the first part is true…you did just bypass three losing hands, but as far as having a “statistical advantage”, IT’S JUST NOT SO. Here’s the thing, if you wanted to flip a coin and before the first flip bet that it will come up heads four times in a row, then I would take that bet at 8 to 1 and neither of us would have an advantage because those are the true odds. However, if you flip a coin three times and it comes up heads each time, THEN come to me wanting me to bet 8 to 1 that it wont come up heads the fourth time, then I’ll tell you YOU’RE CRAZY. Any single flip of the coin has a 50/50 chance of heads or tail, REGARDLESS of what happened before that. I don’t care if you show me a coin that holds the world record for coming up heads 10,000 times in a row…the next flip is 50/50 either way. The same holds true with the dice. DICE HAVE NO MEMORY. They don’t know what they did the last three times or the last hundred times or what they’re supposed to do on the next roll. Each roll of the dice is independent of previous events. So, if you see any system out there touting betting strategies based on probabilities, make sure that the probabilities are calculated BEFORE any of the events are known. Don’t try to sell me a system that tells me to clock the last time an ELEVEN was thrown and after thirty rolls of the dice if you haven’s seen an eleven then start betting it heavily because it’s due. The dice don’t know it’s due, so how do you? On any given roll of the dice, an eleven has a 1 in 16 probability of showing up. On any given roll of the dice, you have a 50/50 chance of winning your bet…either you do or you don’t, there’s no in between.
There systems that direct you to bet according to how the dice are rolling. If you walk up to the table and the shooter wins, then start betting on the pass line. If the shooter loses, the start betting on the don’t pass line. This way when the table is HOT, you are in on the ground floor of some money-making excitement, but if the dice are cold…you’re still in luck because you are betting against the dice. I’ll bet you can figure out what’s wrong with this system. It fails miserably when the dice are neither hot or cold and they alternate from win and loss every other roll. The people that market these schemes are attempting to take advantage of one of the big craps myths…that the table is either HOT or COLD. The reality is that it’s usually LUKE WARM.
Those are the biggies folks. If you hear of any others let me know and I’ll get them posted. Once again, I’m offering a bounty on any system out there that I can prove that it fails. Any takers?Other casino games and guides:
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